Confidential brandUnlocked Cell Phones13 mo

Measuring a 19-day decision with a 7-day report

Account return on spend 2.1x → 4.8x

Nobody buys a $460 phone in one session. The brand was judging campaigns on a report window shorter than its own customers' decision, and switching off everything that builds demand.

Measuring a 19-day decision with a 7-day report

At a glance

Category
Unlocked Cell Phones
Marketplaces
US
Revenue at start
$540k / month
Average selling price
$460
Lag signal
14-day attributed sales 62% above the 7-day figure
Engagement
PPC + account management
Timeframe
13 months

Results

Account return on spend (total sales ÷ spend)+129%2.1x → 4.8x
Monthly revenue+69%$540k → $912k
Share of budget on upper-funnel terms+28 pts6% → 34%
New-to-brand orders+181%310 / mo → 870 / mo

The challenge

A $460 phone is researched. Buyers read comparisons, check storage options, wait for a paycheck, come back three times. Even inside the reports the console does provide, two fifths of attributed sales arrived after day seven, and whatever lands beyond day fourteen is not reported at all.

The brand optimized on a seven-day report. Everything measured inside that window looked like a loss except the narrowest bottom-funnel terms, so over two years the account had been pruned down to exactly those: model-name-plus-storage searches by people who had already decided. Spend was efficient and the business had stopped growing, because every campaign that introduced the brand to a new buyer was switched off within two weeks of launch for failing a test it could not pass.

Our approach

We changed the measurement before changing the spend.

  • The yardstick changed to total-account economics: total sales against total spend on a rolling 28 days, because the console attributes seven and fourteen days and no setting extends that.
  • Two separate budgets: a discovery budget judged on new-to-brand orders and assisted revenue, a harvest budget judged on immediate return.
  • Upper-funnel terms reinstated with a minimum eight-week evaluation period, protected from being cut on one bad two-week stretch.
  • Switch-back tests on the discovery campaigns, eight weeks on and four off, which is the only way to see a lag this long without per-user data.

How we worked

  1. 1

    Measuring the lag

    Read out of the reports themselves: 14-day attributed sales ran 62% above the 7-day figure, and the switch-back tests showed the real tail is longer still.

  2. 2

    Rebuilding the reports

    Weekly reporting rebuilt on total sales, total spend and new-to-brand orders, so a campaign is not judged by a window shorter than the decision.

  3. 3

    Reinstating discovery

    Comparison, category and specification searches restarted with their own budget and their own success criteria.

  4. 4

    Protecting the test

    An eight-week minimum before any discovery campaign can be paused, agreed in writing to stop the reflex.

  5. 5

    Rebalancing

    Discovery grown to a third of spend once the cohort data showed it profitable on a full window.

Inside the ad account

Anonymized account view, rebuilt from the figures reported above: ad sales growing from $243k to $410k a month while ACoS falls from 48% to 21% across the 13-month engagement.

Anonymized account view, rebuilt from the figures reported above: ad sales growing from $243k to $410k a month while ACoS falls from 48% to 21% across the 13-month engagement.

The results

Measured as total sales over total spend, the account returns 4.8x where the seven-day attributed report had been showing 2.1x: most of that gap was always there and simply outside the window the console reports.

Revenue grew 69% and new-to-brand orders nearly tripled, because a third of the budget is now spent introducing the brand to people who have not decided yet. The old approach was not wrong about its numbers; it was reading a seven-day window on a decision that takes weeks, and concluding that demand generation does not work.

“We had spent two years cutting everything that did not pay back in a week, in a business where nobody decides in a week.”
Commercial Director, Unlocked phone seller

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